Ireland’s final pool clash against Scotland at Stade de France on Saturday night looks likely to be the defining game in the Rugby World Cup so far. With defending champions South Africa also in a strong position to reach the last-eight, it means one of the top five ranked sides in the world will be eliminated before the quarter-final stage.
Scotland are up against it the most, and not only because they are playing the number one-ranked side on the planet, but because even a victory might not be enough for Gregor Townsend’s side to avoid an early exit. Saturday night is set to be a nervous watch for Irish, Scottish and South Africa supporters, with many different scenarios in the equation with regards who reaches the last-eight.
The majority of people have taken it for granted that Ireland will win, and keep alive their dreams of becoming only the second northern hemisphere nation ever to lift the Webb Ellis Cup. But what if Scotland win? Rugby correspondent Steffan Thomas looks at what would happen if Scotland were to come out on top in Paris on Saturday night.
With regards Scotland qualifying, the most basic scenario is they beat Ireland by eight points, a feat they haven’t achieved since 2001, with Andy Farrell’s side not picking up a single point. Of course, any Ireland win, or a draw for that matter, will result in Townsend’s Scotland side catching a flight back to Scotland on Monday morning.
What happens if all three sides are level on points?
There is a realistic scenario where all three sides end up on 15 points. This will be the case if Scotland get five points by winning and scoring four tries, while Ireland secure one losing bonus point. If this happens, the first-placed team will be decided by points difference. If two or three of the teams have the same points difference, the difference between the number of tries scored and conceded will be the next determining factor to decide the group winner. Once the winner is decided, the second placed team will be whoever won the head to head group match between the two remaining sides.
The points difference situation throws up some bizarre, although highly unlikely, scenarios for this Ireland v Scotland match. Let’s assume Scotland are winning a thriller 36-20, with both teams having scored four tries and just a few minutes on the clock.
In this situation, Ireland would qualify by conceding another try but would go out if they didn’t. That’s because another try would take Scotland’s points difference to +21, meaning they top the group and Ireland finish second because they beat South Africa in their head to head.
There is another equally ridiculous scenario to consider. Imagine the score is 43-1 7 and Ireland then score a last-minute try to get a bonus point that would leave all three teams tied on 15 points. If they were to convert the try, they would actually go out because it would leave South Africa top of the group on points difference, with Scotland finishing second because they beat Ireland. If Ireland missed the conversion they would go through because Scotland would top the group on points difference (+21).
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