Red Sox spring training is in full swing with the team about a week into exhibition play. Opening Day, believe it or not, is just four weeks away.
That means it’s a good time to once again project the 26-man roster Boston will take to Seattle for the opener on March 28. Just like our last projection from Feb. 19, this group doesn’t include any potential free agent or trade additions, as we’re focused on the group that’s in camp in Fort Myers. Obviously, if the Red Sox do make a late-hour push for Jordan Montgomery or add to the outskirts of their position player group, our projection will have to change.
But for now, here’s the latest projection for Boston’s Opening Day roster:
ANALYSIS: Four starters remain locked into the Opening Day rotation with Bello, Giolito, Crawford and Pivetta — in some order — anchoring the group. Barring an outside addition, the fifth spot will come down to a three-man group of Houck, Garrett Whitlock and Josh Winckowski.
All three pitched well in their Grapefruit League debuts, with Houck and Winckowski each producing hitless two-inning outings. The second rotation of started Thursday with Whitlock pitching in Fort Myers against the Tigers. As pitching coach Andrew Bailey told MassLive’s Sean McAdam late last week, exhibition performance alone won’t dictate who makes the team. The complete picture of factors will.
The guess here remiains that Houck, who spent the entire season in the rotation last year and more success as a big league starter than either Whitlock or Winckowski, has an edge. For as much as he struggled last year both before and after having his face broken by a line drive in June, Houck still does have a respectable 4.17 ERA in 41 career starts. Any of the three candidates could claim the fifth spot. The two that don’t will head to the bullpen.
Cooper Criswell will likely start the year in the Worcester rotation and serve as a depth option on the 40-man roster; lefty Brandon Walter is another pitcher with starting experience ticketed for Worcester. Top prospects Wikelman Gonzalez and Luis Perales are farther away from contributing but also on the 40-man. The Red Sox could benefit from adding a veteran free agent starter or two on a minor league deal to add experienced options at Triple-A. Veteran Jason Alexander was signed to provide a rotation arm in Triple-A but isn’t in major league camp and therefore isn’t a candidate to make the club.
ANALYSIS: The last projection came on the heels of the news the Red Sox traded righty John Schreiber to Kansas City for pitching prospect David Sandlin, shaking up the group as camp opened. Another development has further changed the bullpen mix a month away from Opening Day.
Jansen, Martin and Bernardino are locks, even if manager Alex Cora wouldn’t guarantee anything to Bernardino, who was one of the team’s best breakout stars in 2023. Whoever doesn’t win the fifth rotation spot will head to the bullpen; that’s Whitlock and Winckowski here with Houck projected to start. Effectively, that’s five out of eight spots locked up — and three up for grabs.
In the last projection, we had righties Isaiah Campbell, Zack Kelly and Bryan Mata taking the last three spots. But the oft-injured Mata is once again hurt, having pulled a hamstring at some point in the last couple weeks. That injury, while unfortunate for Mata’s chance of making the team, may help the Red Sox preserve some depth when the season opens. They were faced with a tough call on Mata, who is out of minor league options and would have to either be active or exposed to waivers, and can kick that down the line a little if he starts the year on the injured list. Considering he’s not throwing, that’s the likely outcome.
Mata’s injury clears the path for another young arm to make the team and Rule 5 pick Justin Slaten seems like the most likely to capitalize on the opportunity. He’s effectively in the same roster conundrum as Mata but has the upper hand because he’s healthy. The other two spots will come down to a series of righties with flexible roster status and some veteran lefties who were late adds to the camp mix.
Campbell, Kelly and Greg Weissert are in the mix for right-handers along with Criswell, though Criswell may be stretched out as a rotation option at Triple-A. All four are on the 40-man roster and have options. If Cora wants to carry a second lefty with Bernardino, he has some options including minor league signees Lucas Luetge, Joely Rodríguez and Jorge Benítez and returnees Chris Murphy and Joe Jacques. For non-roster righties, Justin Hagenman, Franklin German, Luis Guerrero and A.J. Politi are among the notable names but all of those are long shots to make the club considering how many 40-man options there are.
Campbell is someone the Red Sox have pumped up throughout camp and Kelly is someone Cora liked a lot last year. Weissert should be in the mix too even if Barstool’s Marty Mush got a hit off him. Luetge, Rodríguez and Benitez are, too. Opt-out clauses and the willingness of the veterans to go to Triple-A could be deciding factors at the end of March.
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