Penguins GM Kyle Dubas finds himself in a very different position than he was one year ago.

Tasked with extending the Penguins’ closing championship window, Dubas immediately got to work on the roster when he was appointed president of hockey operations last June. He swung for the fences, nabbing reigning Norris Trophy winner Erik Karlsson, as well as a Stanley Cup champion in Reilly Smith. Pundits debated whether Karlsson would rack up another 100-point season on a formidable power play featuring three potential Hall of Famers in Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang. It was also assumed that Tristan Jarry, armed with a brand-new $26.875-million contract extension, would help the team bounce back in a big way.

Adding Karlsson, in particular, was seen as a vote of confidence in the Penguins’ ability to extend their championship window. The fact it didn’t cost them a top prospect, such as Brayden Yager or Owen Pickering, was the cherry on top.

“Adding someone like that to the group as we attempt to give it every chance to win but also keeping an eye to the future,” Dubas said after acquiring Karlsson from the Sharks in August 2023. Well now, the other eye seems to be at least glancing over at the future after just missing out on the playoffs again.

Karlsson recorded 56 points in 82 games after 101 points the year before. Smith had 40 points in 76 games after six seasons of having a larger role with the Vegas Golden Knights. A report surfaced that Smith never wanted to be traded to Pittsburgh, and he was traded to the New York Rangers on July 1. Jarry posted a .903 save percentage and 2.91 goals-against average that were close to the same stats as backup Alex Nedeljkovic, who actually played one more game than the starter from Dec. 3 onward. It was a testament to Sidney Crosby’s greatness and consistency that his team even sniffed the post-season, being eliminated on the second-last day of the regular season.

The conversations around this team are more reminiscent of the rebuilding early-2000s Penguins than they’ve ever been in the past two decades. The last time the Penguins missed the playoffs in back-to-back seasons, they quickly sunk to second-last and last league-wide the following two seasons, facilitating a rapid rebuild-to-championship cycle. Just four seasons separate the Penguins’ selection of Crosby at the 2005 NHL draft and their 2009 Stanley Cup championship. Much of that can be attributed to their lottery fortunes, but it wouldn’t have been possible without a committed organizational tank job.

While the Penguins are no strangers to a tank job – they successfully completed them in 1984 for Mario Lemieux and 2005 for Crosby – this will not be the case again as long as Crosby remains on board. His intense competitive nature and Fenway Sports Group’s (FSG) desire to keep him happy will prevent that.

That being said, after missing out on the Stanley Cup playoffs for the second consecutive season after a franchise-record 17 consecutive playoff berths, the future is now very much of concern to Dubas and FSG, at least more so than throwing draft picks out the window in the name of chasing championships. The team’s off-season moves say as much. Aside from a deal that brought in aging center Kevin Hayes from the St. Louis Blues, the Penguins only made adjustments to the fringes of the lineup.

Dubas signed depth defensemen Matt Grzelyck and former New York Islander Sebastian Aho, fourth-liner Blake Lizotte and Bokondji Imama, who has 15 games of NHL experience. Dubas did sign Anthony Beauvillier, who is familiar to Penguins fans for his role in eliminating Pittsburgh in the first round in 2019 and 2021. But Beauvillier bounced from team to team this past season and has struggled to find any offensive footing since his standout playoff performances three and four years ago.

All of this, and the Penguins are still left with the gaping hole created by Jake Guentzel’s departure via trade in March

Shipping Guentzel out of Pittsburgh for futures was the first crack in Dubas’ original plan to go all-in, which continued this summer with exchanging Smith for picks. Dubas did well to get a second-round pick and a conditional fifth-rounder for Smith, an appreciation in value from the third-rounder he originally sent to the Vegas Golden Knights to acquire him. If nothing else, that’s good asset management in the aftermath of a failed experiment. But the Penguins used to be all about shipping picks out, not in. It was part of their identity under GMs Ray Shero, Jimmy Rutherford and Ron Hextall. It was always a safe assumption the Penguins were shopping their first-round selection for immediate help.